Nuclear deterrence in south asia an assessment of deterrence and stability in the indiapakistan conflict by mark westh, maia juel giorgio, jakob wiegersma and tina madsen download pdf 2 mb. A small storm in south asias nuclear teacup last month provides an entry point into using indias case in an imagined nuclear aftermath as example. Nuclear weapons and deterrence international strategic and. Tools to improve nuclear stability and deterrence in south asia. An expert on security in the asia pacific region and alliance politics, rapphooper talked about the u. In south asia, deterrence of india and p akistan is premised on the concept of re talia on and punishment rather than denial. Perhaps the most frightening thing about nuclear deterrence is its many paths to failure. Pdf the stability of nuclear deterrence in south asia. The first section examines arguments on the existence of deterrence stability in south asia, if at all it does.
Nuclear deterrence is a factor of stability in south asia. Fsi cisac why nuclear deterrence can work on north korea. Escalation control and the nuclear option in south asia. A small storm in south asia s nuclear teacup last month provides an entry point into using indias case in an imagined nuclear aftermath as example. Advanced conventional weapons, deterrence and the u. Prospects and challenges for arms control with china by michael s. The authors each bring a unique analytic angle to the problem ranging from deterrence theory to the foreign policies of key protagonists like the united states, south korea, and china. Although the term minimum rapidly became a fixture of the public nuclear discourse in south asia, neither india nor pakistan officially clarified what the term minimum means, leaving this. Japan, south korea, and the united states nuclear umbrella. Minimum nuclear deterrence postures in south asia the web site. It covers the historic evolution of the technological developments of the indian and pakistani programs and the nuances of the countries respective policies towards the international nonproliferation regime. Pakistan was more advanced in operationalizing its nuclear deterrent and. At the operational level, proactive deterrence has been embedded into the 20 combined counterprovocation plan ccp that provides a series of options.
A comparative study of nuclear doctrines of india and pakistan. Conflict resolution and promotion of regional cooperation in south. Nuclear learning pursues this mission by making diverse viewpoints accessible via open online courses, nurturing vibrant communities of nuclear learners. Asia assumed a new urgency in the aftermath of the nuclear tests by. In any case, deterrence stability would reduce the risks of terrorists acquiring nuclear weapons. Mar 14, 2016 despite the appearance of improved relations, the possibility of war in south asia remains very real. Pdf surgical strikes and deterrencestability in south asia. This paper studies the deterrence theory, nuclear terrorism, the prospects of. Jones ppoolliiccyy aarrcchhiitteeccttss iinntteerrnnaattiioonnaall rreessttoonn, vvaa 2200119911 the publication of this document does.
Kristensen has quoted various statements by scientists of the indian defence research and development organisation drdo related to modernisation of indias missile program to arrive at the conclusion that the development and deployment of longer range. It has become popular to compare europe and east asia in the western nuclear policy and deterrence community, resulting in an increasing number of comparative works on deterrence. Nuclear deterrence in south asia revolves around two historical adversaries. Gerson 329 12 china and global nuclear arms control and disarmament by li bin 355 orea. Recipients will receive an email with a link to nuclear deterrence in south asia. The national command authority on wednesday stated that nuclear deterrence is a factor of stability in south asia and expressed its resolve. South asia under the shadow of nuclear weapons mit. In south asia at least, the logic of nuclear deterrence has been closer to the mark than the logic of nonproliferation. The occupation of siachin glacier 1984 and brasstacks. The threat of indiapakistan war is more immediate than that of nuclear terrorism. However, a more formal and structured deterrence framework began. New technologies and challenges to sustainable peace september 18, 2019 new nuclear technologies, and change in nuclear doctrines.
The three countries have been evaluated on their strategic culture, the role of nuclear weapons in their overall military strategy, the nature of public opinion, responses to the various arms control treaties, and foreign policy choices. Why nuclear deterrence can work on north korea public. Nuclear deterrence in south asia 81 nuclear deterrence rebuts this perspective, suggesting instead that proliferation has stabilizing effects. Civilmilitary relations and decisionmaking and will not need an account to access the content. Mar 27, 2018 waning nuclear deterrence in south asia by tahir nazir, march 27, 2018 after india and pakistan first tested nuclear devices in 1998, people in both countries hoped that nuclear weapons would decrease the incentive for war and lead to sustainable peace in the region.
The stimson centers krepon adds, pakistan is a disadvantaged state that. Since 1991, the stimson center has examined the threat of conflict in south asia, ways to seek normal relations between india and pakistan, and means to reduce nuclear risks. Mirv program and deterrence stability in south asia that indias develop. And a lethal one at that a test launch of a nuclear missile in north korea. Nuclear deterrence is a factor of stability in south. Indiapakistan and nuclear deterrence equation in region. Control in south asia, will hopefully become a standard reference for academic courses as well as essential reading for government officials, military officers, and nongovernmental experts. Under the core principles of the security dilemma, this book analyzes the preva. Deterrence generally refers to the ability to discourage an attack through the threat of retaliation, while. Nuclear deterrence, rivalry, and conflict escalation in south. This enmity and hostility has further ramifications.
An expert on security in the asiapacific region and alliance politics, rapphooper talked about the u. Indias rising nuclear and conventional ambitions have enforced pakistan to build up its nuclear capabilities to ensure the credibility of its nuclear deterrence. The growing disparity and asymmetry in south asia is favorable to india yet challenging for pakistan. This doctrine is not a part of the nuclear doctrine, which is designed for the use of the atomic weapons in a fullscale declared war if the conditions of the doctrine are surpassed. Indias nuclear strategy is based on three objectives.
Waning nuclear deterrence in south asia by tahir nazir, march 27, 2018 after india and pakistan first tested nuclear devices in 1998, people in both countries hoped that nuclear weapons would decrease the incentive for war and lead to sustainable peace in the region. Deterrence stability in south asia major general ret. What is nuclear learning nuclear learning is an online initiative produced by the stimson center s south asia program to sharpen strategic analysts understanding of nuclear programs, doctrines, and postures in south asia and beyond. Rhetorical question by kenneth waltz, 19811 india and pakistan have maintained a relationship of animosity since partition in 1947. He said that the book helps us better understand the stresses on nuclear deterrence emanating from indias irresponsible conduct as a nuclear weapon state. Southern asias nuclear powers council on foreign relations.
The nonunitary, irrational actor model and strategic. Apr 26, 2017 just as avidly nuclear strategists articulate their wares, antinuclear practitioners must showcase nuclear dangers to induce selfdeterrence in decision makers. Stimson is a thoughtleader in the dynamics of deterrence, escalation, crisis. Our new monograph, like the last, deterrence stability and escalation control in south asia, will hopefully become a standard reference for academic courses as well as essential reading for government officials, military officers, and nongovernmental experts. The evolution of nuclear deterrence in south asia page content associate dean cips dr tughral yamins book on the evolution of nuclear deterrence in south asia was published in march 2014. Pdf the evolution of nuclear deterrence in south asia. An assessment of deterrence nuclear deterrence in south asia and stability in the indian pakistan conflict autumn 2010 maia juel giorgio, tina sondergaard madsen, jakob wigersma, mark westh global studies bachelor module. Pdf nuclear deterrence in south asia suresh dhanda. This book explores evolving patterns of nuclear deterrence, the impact of new technologies, and changing deterrent force postures in the south asian region to assess future challenges for sustainable peace and stability. We believe this book of essays by prominent american, pakistani, and indian authorities will advance our understanding of this poorly explored topic. The genesis of south asian nuclear deterrence is an attempt to provide a complete picture of the dynamics of south asian nuclearization.
Failure of coercive pressure to effect nuclear reversal 24. History, current views, and implications foreign policy at brookings arms control series paper 5 february 2011. The present text is an informed, yet pithy commentary on the history of indiapakistan crises since 199899, the role of and impact upon nuclear deterrence in these crises and the ways in which deterrence stability can be enhanced in. In northeast asia, the united states faces a special challenge in demonstrating the credibility of extended deterrence. Cohen south asia nuclear futures6 in the creeping growth model, minimum deterrence is conceived of in larger numbers on the basis of some notion of redundancy against the event of a first strike. The deterrence equilibrium in south asia serves as an assurance for peace and stability in the region. The first part of this paper highlights the debate between nuclear proliferation optimists and pessimists. It establishes indias responses to pakistans subconventional war as the. The national command authority on wednesday stated that nuclear deterrence is a factor of stability in south asia and expressed its resolve to maintain full spectrum deterrence, in line. Resultantly pakistan tested its nuclear weapon in the same month of 1998 to acquire credible nuclear deterrence against india as well. Shidore argues that two core operational aspects of indias strategic culture nuclear minimalism and strategic restraint are increasingly under stress, and that modifications of these precepts are likely to increase deterrence instability. These commonalities promote the possibilities for establishing an acr in south asia, which could ensure deterrence stability.
North korea, in particular, seems to regard its small nuclear arsenal as a short. Deterrence instability and nuclear weapons in south asia. Introduction the 1998 nuclear tests by india and pakistan dramatically worsened the security situation for over a billion people in the subcontinent. The risk of nuclear war in south asia is significant and not to be taken lightly. Pdf on mar 24, 2010, mohan malik and others published the stability of nuclear deterrence in south asia. Deterrence stability and escalation control in south asia, edited by michael krepon and julia thompson. Deterrence stability, security doctrines and escalation. This paper examines the history of extended deterrence commitments and other assurance measures for two u. Even before overt nuclearization of south asia deterrence.
This paper questions the basic soundness of the nuclear deterrence. Uses and limitations of nuclear deterrence in asia rand. The nonunitary model and deterrence stability in south asia 21 george perkovich, carnegie endowment for international peace pakistans nuclear strategy and deterrence stability 41 michael krepon, stimson center the us experience with tactical nuclear weapons. Tools to improve nuclear stability and deterrence in south asia 175. External support and help was critical, to varying degrees, for south asia s nuclear breakout 4.
Notwithstanding those differences, extended deterrence remains a useful analytical framework in assessing security and stability in east asia and a helpful language in conversations between the united states, japan, and south korea. The triadic relationship between india, pakistan and china and their nuclear weapons policies is analyzed in this volume. But this isnt the 20th century, and north korea is no soviet union. According to sameer lalwani, growing nuclear tensions, failures in diplomacy, and potential crises between india and pakistan make studying nuclear issues in south asia one of todays most important subjects. North korea and nuclear weapons georgetown university press. Will south koreas non nuclear strategy k defeat north koreas nuclear breakout. Tactical nuclear weapons and deterrence stability in south. Stimson is a thoughtleader in the dynamics of deterrence, escalation, crisis management, and nuclear competition on the subcontinent. It is based on an article by sagan, the perils of proliferation in south asia, asia survey, novdec 2001, vol. Why nuclear deterrence can work on north korea gettyimages847114660. Jan 30, 2018 however, it is also true that the rapidly changing security environment in northeast asia, which was further exacerbated by north koreas november 2017 test of an icbm with the possible capability to reach the u. Strategic imperatives for deterrence stability in south asia. There is something here for both the expert and the general reader who want to make sense of this enigmatic regime and its increasingly riskacceptant behavior.
Challenges to an acr in the contemporary world, the creation of an acr may require some essential ingredients before it can be expected to boost deterrence stability and promote escalation control. Ballistic missile defence and multiple independently. The south asia segment here addresses what is currently known from public sources about indian and pakistani nuclear postures, policies, strategies, forces, command and control issues, delivery system acquisition trends, and plausible doctrinal evolution. Nuclear deterrence in south asia 125 overtly in 1998, which created a ripple effect in the region. The aggressive sunderji doctrine in the 1980s aimed at slicing pakistan into two was deterred by gen zia ul haq. With the withdrawal of us nuclear weapons from south korean in 1991, there are no us nuclear weapons forward deployed in the asia pacific region. The evolution of nuclear deterrence in south asia ciss insight, vol ii, no. Conventional asymmetries between india and pakistan. According to aizaz ahmed chaudhary, the indiaunited states nuclear deal increased new delhis capabilities of fissile production and disturbed south asia strategic stability. The concluding section briefly explores the implications of my research for regional stability and the broader phenomena of nuclear deterrence and nuclear proliferation. As a result, neither country has developed nuclear weapons. Deterrence stability and escalation control in south asia. The next important leg of fsd is the completion of pakistans seabased deterrence that ensures the survivability of its strategic forces, allowing second and third nuclear strikes options. Just as avidly nuclear strategists articulate their wares, anti nuclear practitioners must showcase nuclear dangers to induce self deterrence in decision makers.
What may be surprising, however, is how complicated and contentious the normative analysis of the strategy of nuclear deterrence has proven to be. During 1945, realizing the devastating impact of nuclear weapons, british prime. Nuclearization of south asia has put forwarded three major challenges that are. It then takes some general theoretical assumptions of deterrence and examines them in the south asian context. An examination of attitudes current in 1964 toward the subject of nuclear deterrence in asia. Peace fellowship was established in 1987 to be a highlycompetitive national fellowship program. Qasim qureshi an informal deterrence relationship had existed between india and pakistan well before nuclear weapons were tested. Delivery systems developed before actual weaponisation took place 3. According to a press release, the submarinelaunched cruise missile slcm baburiii provides. Tactical nuclear weapons and deterrence stability in south asia. The strategic significance of nuclear weapons in the south asian security equation is. Oct 05, 2017 during the cold war, the united states became an expert in the concept of nuclear deterrence. Third, it aims to acquire the status of great power so that it could influence regional and global political and security order. Mar 11, 2016 when you talk about a generator in south asia and deterrence, in the case of india and pakistan, a third state is involvedthe united states.
Despite the appearance of improved relations, the possibility of war in south asia remains very real. Nuclear doctrine, nuclear deterrence, command and control, nuclear posture, strategic culture introduction the strategic culture of south asia is characterized by the hostility between india and pakistan. Maybe mcmaster wasnt articulating administration policy. It also has one of the largest militaries in the world, a. Ideally, the best measure of whether the two are in fact in a classic, reciprocal nuclear arms competition would be the rate at which both sides are.
This is hardly surprising, given that everyone considers a full scale nuclear war just about the worst thing that could ever happen. Centers south asia program, escalation control and the nuclear option in south asia. Waning nuclear deterrence in south asia bulletin of the. Nuclear doctrines in south asia 4 south asian strategic stability unit nuclear pessimists, however, has tended to neglect the critical role that nuclear doctrines of the emerging nuclear weapon states might play in either causing deterrence failure or ensuring its. May 21, 2015 these commonalities promote the possibilities for establishing an acr in south asia, which could ensure deterrence stability.
Nuclear south asia, its structure, and its objectives see about the ourse. In south asia, nuclear arsenal is seen as a great equaliser and the ultimate tool to counter adversarys present or future conventional strength. Nuclear deterrence, rivalry and conflict escalation in south asia and if nuclear weapons are acquired by two states that are traditional and bitter rivals, should that not also foster our concern. A theoretical basis for regional nuclear deterrence. Pakistani nuclear declaratory statements are clear that india is regarded as its sole nuclear adversary and thus the focus of its nuclear deterrent. Against north korea, deterrence of a different kind. Pakistans stabilisationdestabilisation dilemma ghazala yasmin jalil abstract pakistans testing of the nuclear capable tactical ballistic missile nasr and its indias counterpart prahaar has renewed a debate on deterrence stability in south asia. The indian military has undergone several doctrinal transformation phases. Deterrence stability and the conventional balance of forces in south asia 5 christopher clary, massachusetts institute of technology strategic restraint regime 2. Under the core principles of the security dilemma, this book analyzes the prevailing security environment in south asia and offers unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral frameworks to stabilize peace and ensure deterrence stability in the south asian region. Pakistan is preparing for a counterforce targeting strategy against india through land, sea, and air platforms.
Nuclear deterrence has by and large been unrelenting in south asia since 1971 however a twist of events may abruptly alter this state to a degree that could prompt the decisionmakers to go for rapid and illogical decisions. Deterrence after the cold war terence roehrig download bok. The paper discusses several possible developments which might affect the efficacy of these viewpoints, and considers some measures for surmounting the limitations of deterrence. Courtesy of the national nuclear security administration.